Matchup analysis
Our model projects Southeast Missouri State 27, UT Martin 23 at Houck Field in Week 12. That is a lean: Southeast Missouri State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UT Martin is 3-5 against the 19th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.6 and allowing 33 points per game (-9.4 per game). Southeast Missouri State is 5-3 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UT Martin by 18 and Southeast Missouri State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Southeast Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southeast Missouri State by about 2.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UT Martin vs Southeast Missouri State: stat comparison
| Stat | UT Martin | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.6 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 23.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.32 | 5.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.96 | 5.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.0 | 157.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.0 | 210.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.9 | 137.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.3 | 219.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 39.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% | 36.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 15.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 16 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6 | 70.1 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 36.4% |
| Passing success rate | 34.7% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0% | 20.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 41.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.1% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.1% | 63.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Martin schedule · Southeast Missouri State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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