2026 schedule
UT Martin Skyhawks
2026 season so far
UT Martin is 3-5 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.6 and allowing 33 points per game (-9.4 per game).
UT Martin plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Eastern Illinois in Week 9. We project UT Martin 30, Eastern Illinois 20 — UT Martin wins 75% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Central Arkansas Bears
1-0 · SOS #28
Loss 24-36
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UT Martin by 4.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
UTM -3
Total 50.5
Final Central Arkansas by 12. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 60 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -3 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market +1.7 pts (UT Martin view)
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
Chicago State Cougars
0-2 · SOS #134
Win 42-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UT Martin by 7.4
Total 50
DraftKings
UTM -45.5
Total 61.5
Final UT Martin by 35. Chicago State beat the spread. 49 points — under the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -45.5 (open UT Martin -44.5) · O/U 61.5 · model vs market -38.1 pts (UT Martin view)
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham Stadium - at
West Virginia Mountaineers
2-0 · SOS #56
Loss 7-52
Week 2
Our number· pregame
West Virginia by 32.6
Total 49.2
DraftKings
WVU -41.5
Total 57.5
Final West Virginia by 45. West Virginia beat the spread. 59 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: West Virginia -41.5 (open West Virginia -41.25) · O/U 57.5 (open 55.5) · model vs market -8.9 pts (West Virginia view)
ESPN+ Milan Puskar StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
Memphis Tigers
3-1 · SOS #104
Loss 21-45
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 37.1
Total 54.5
DraftKings
MEM -33.5
Total 58.5
Final Memphis by 24. UT Martin beat the spread. 66 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -33.5 (open Memphis -34.5) · O/U 58.75 (open 57.25) · ML +4000 / -50000 · Memphis 98% no-vig · model vs market +3.6 pts, +2 pct pts (Memphis view)
ESPN+ Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - at
Austin Peay Governors
4-1 · SOS #75
Loss 12-35
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 19.2
Total 56
DraftKings
APSU -15.5
Total 53.5
Final Austin Peay by 23. Austin Peay beat the spread. 47 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -15.5 (open Austin Peay -14.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +553 / -900 · Austin Peay 85% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +4 pct pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 6 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit - at
Tennessee State Tigers
1-5 · SOS #33
Win 42-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 46.7
DraftKings
UTM -8.5
Total 46.5
Final UT Martin by 14. UT Martin beat the spread. 70 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -8.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -349 / +263 · Tennessee State 26% no-vig · model vs market +8.4 pts, +24 pct pts (Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 64°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN+ Nissan StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - vs
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #54
Win 17-6
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 1.2
Total 50
DraftKings
GWEB -1.5
Total 51.5
Final UT Martin by 11. UT Martin beat the spread. 23 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -1.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 48.5) · ML -121 / -102 · UT Martin 48% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -1 pct pts (UT Martin view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUCY)ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - at
Western Illinois Leathernecks
4-4 · SOS #95
Loss 24-55
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Western Illinois by 1.5
Total 55.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Illinois by 31. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 76°F, Wind 10 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMQB)ESPN+ Hanson FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - vs
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-6 · SOS #46
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-20 · 75%
Our number
UT Martin by 10
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 75°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
4-4 · SOS #61
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-25 · 44%
Our number
Charleston Southern by 2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Buccaneer FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Lindenwood Lions
3-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-23 · 66%
Our number
UT Martin by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
5-3 · SOS #70
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 23-27 · 39%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Houck FieldExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
UT Martin Skyhawks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-23.7
Adj. offense
14.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 33.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.32 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.96 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 166.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 178.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 181.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 247.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.25 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.25 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.0% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.31 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.94 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 16 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 16 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.3% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.0% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 47.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 73.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 60.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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