Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 45.8, UT Martin 8.7 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Memphis wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 37.1 points and 54.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UT Martin is 1-2, scoring 24.3 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). Memphis is 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
UT Martin plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Memphis's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 15 and Memphis by 60 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 35. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UT Martin 21, Memphis 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.1 points and the total by 11.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UT Martin / Memphis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -34.5 → Memphis -33.5 | 57.25 → 58.75 | +4000 / -50000 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -34.5 → Memphis -33.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +4000 / -50000 |
| Bovada | Memphis -34.5 → Memphis -33.5 | 57 → 59 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Memphis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -37 | 54.5 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -33.5 | 58.8 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -34.5 | 58.6 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Memphis win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -37.1 · market Memphis -33.5 · difference +3.6 pts (Memphis view)
- Total
- model 54.5 · market 58.75 · difference -4.2
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Memphis than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UT Martin 8.7, Memphis 45.8 | Memphis 99%right winner | 13.1 | 11.5 |
| New formula | UT Martin 12.9, Memphis 40.6 | Memphis 97%right winner | 3.7 | 12.5 |
Final: UT Martin 21, Memphis 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UT Martin vs Memphis: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UT Martin | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 29.7#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.7 | 27.7#108 |
| Yards per play | 5.77 | 8.47#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48 | 7.17#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.0 | 230.3#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.3 | 261.0#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.7 | 233.3#133 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.0 | 273.3#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.33#105 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33 | 1.33#46 |
| Sacks per game | 0.67 | 3.00#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 1.33#62 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.17#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.14#121 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 43.7%#65 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3% | 44.3%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 20.1%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 15.6%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 12.3%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 14.9%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.07 | 4.36#64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 3.45#45 |
| Average starting field position | opp 26 | own 22#137 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 25 | own 26#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7 | 58.0#111 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20 | +0.10#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.28#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.28#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30 | +0.01#68 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 43.7%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 42.0% | 43.7%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9% | 18.4%#89 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6% | 30.6%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.6% | 25.0%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4% | 32.1%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.2% | 35.9%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 16.5% | 40.0%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.7% | 63.6%#86 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Martin schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 3 projections
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