Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UT Martin 29.2, Central Arkansas 24.5 at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: UT Martin wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Central Arkansas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. UT Martin has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Arkansas by 18 and UT Martin by 27 about 80% of the time.
UT Martin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UT Martin by about 2.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Arkansas 36, UT Martin 24. Central Arkansas won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Arkansas / UT Martin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UT Martin -3 | 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | UT Martin -3 | 50.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UT Martin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UT Martin -4.5 | 53.6 | 62% |
| Market consensus | UT Martin -3 | 50.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | UT Martin -3.5 | 51.4 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UT Martin win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model UT Martin -4.7 · market UT Martin -3 · difference +1.7 pts (UT Martin view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 50.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward UT Martin than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Arkansas 24.5, UT Martin 29.2 | UT Martin 62%wrong winner | 16.7 | 6.4 |
| New formula | Central Arkansas 22.8, UT Martin 32.0 | UT Martin 70%wrong winner | 21.2 | 5.3 |
Final: Central Arkansas 36, UT Martin 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Arkansas vs UT Martin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Arkansas | UT Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5 | 20.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.2 | 23.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.22 | 5.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 6.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.0 | 172.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.6 | 167.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 122.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.3 | 247.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | UT Martin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 46.9% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 44.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 12.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67 | 3.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 4.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | UT Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.4% | 41.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5% | 54.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.3% | 71.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · UT Martin schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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