Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Virginia 40.9, UT Martin 8.3 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: West Virginia wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32.6 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UT Martin is 1-1, scoring 33 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+11.5 per game). West Virginia is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game).
UT Martin plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why West Virginia's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Virginia by 10 and West Virginia by 55 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour West Virginia by about 30.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UT Martin 7, West Virginia 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.4 points and the total by 9.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UT Martin / West Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | West Virginia -41.25 → West Virginia -41.5 | 55.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | West Virginia -42 → West Virginia -41.5 | 55.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | West Virginia -40.5 → West Virginia -41.5 | 55.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | West Virginia -32.5 | 49.1 | 98% |
| Market consensus | West Virginia -41.5 | 57.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | West Virginia -40.5 | 57.2 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Virginia win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model West Virginia -32.6 · market West Virginia -41.5 · difference -8.9 pts (West Virginia view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 57.5 · difference -8.4
Model margin is 8.9 pts more toward UT Martin than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UT Martin 8.3, West Virginia 40.9 | West Virginia 98%right winner | 12.4 | 9.9 |
| New formula | UT Martin 13.5, West Virginia 39.9 | West Virginia 94%right winner | 18.6 | 5.5 |
Final: UT Martin 7, West Virginia 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UT Martin vs West Virginia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UT Martin | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7 | 21.8#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9 | 30.8#113 |
| Yards per play | 5.25 | 5.31#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.44 | 6.11#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.7 | 180.3#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.6 | 191.5#100 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.3 | 162.9#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.0 | 272.8#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.25#100 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.42#26 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.25#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.33#108 |
| Stat | UT Martin | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.13#130 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | -0.00#59 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 36.3%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 40.7%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 9.3%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.6%#112 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0% | 14.0%#27 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 11.7%#59 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | 3.63#107 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.78 | 4.10#97 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | own 30#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 70.0#28 |
| Stat | UT Martin | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.14#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.11#115 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.09#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.09#101 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 37.9%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6% | 34.1%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 19.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 25.6%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 33.6%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 31.1%#134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 41.3%#79 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.7% | 61.3%#67 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.2% | 62.0%#82 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Martin schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 2 projections
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