Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UT Martin 28.7, Chicago State 21.3 at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: UT Martin wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 49.9 combined points.
Chicago State is 0-1, scoring 28 and allowing 44 points per game (-16 per game). UT Martin is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 36 points per game (-12 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chicago State by 15 and UT Martin by 30 about 80% of the time.
UT Martin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UT Martin by about 5.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chicago State 7, UT Martin 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.6 points and the total by 0.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chicago State / UT Martin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UT Martin -44.5 → UT Martin -45.5 | 61.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | UT Martin -44.5 → UT Martin -45.5 | 61.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UT Martin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UT Martin -7.5 | 49.9 | 69% |
| Market consensus | UT Martin -45.5 | 61.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | UT Martin -39.5 | 60.7 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UT Martin win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model UT Martin -7.4 · market UT Martin -45.5 · difference -38.1 pts (UT Martin view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 61.5 · difference -11.6
Model margin is 38.1 pts more toward Chicago State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chicago State 21.3, UT Martin 28.7 | UT Martin 69%right winner | 27.6 | 0.9 |
| New formula | Chicago State 22.7, UT Martin 32.3 | UT Martin 72%right winner | 25.4 | 6.0 |
Final: Chicago State 7, UT Martin 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Chicago State schedule · UT Martin schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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