Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Illinois 28.6, UT Martin 27.1 at Hanson Field in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Western Illinois wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UT Martin is 3-4, scoring 23.6 and allowing 29.9 points per game (-6.3 per game). Western Illinois is 3-4, scoring 31.6 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+6.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UT Martin by 21 and Western Illinois by 24 about 80% of the time.
Western Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field UT Martin would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UT Martin 24, Western Illinois 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 29.5 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UT Martin 27.1, Western Illinois 28.6 | Western Illinois 54%right winner | 29.5 | 23.4 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: UT Martin 24, Western Illinois 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UT Martin vs Western Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UT Martin | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.25 | 5.24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.44 | 6.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.7 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.6 | 224.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.3 | 212.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.0 | 242.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.45 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 37.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 15.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.0% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | 3.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.78 | 4.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 66.9 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Western Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 41.6% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 31.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.7% | 56.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.2% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Martin schedule · Western Illinois schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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