Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UT Martin 23.4, Tennessee State 23.3 at Nissan Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: UT Martin wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
UT Martin is 1-4, scoring 21.2 and allowing 35 points per game (-13.8 per game). Tennessee State is 1-4, scoring 16 and allowing 34.6 points per game (-18.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UT Martin by 23 and Tennessee State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UT Martin is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UT Martin 42, Tennessee State 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.9 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UT Martin / Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UT Martin -8.5 | 46.5 | -349 / +263 |
| DraftKings | UT Martin -8.5 | 46.5 | -349 / +263 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 46.6 | 50% |
| Market consensus | UT Martin -8.5 | 46.5 | 26% |
| Blended projection | UT Martin -7 | 47.6 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee State win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model UT Martin -0.1 · market UT Martin -8.5 · difference +8.4 pts (Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 46.6 · market 46.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 8.4 pts more toward Tennessee State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UT Martin 23.4, Tennessee State 23.3 | UT Martin 50%right winner | 13.9 | 23.4 |
| New formula | UT Martin 26.3, Tennessee State 20.9 | UT Martin 64%right winner | 8.5 | 22.8 |
Final: UT Martin 42, Tennessee State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UT Martin vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UT Martin | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7 | 12.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.25 | 4.72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.44 | 5.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.7 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.6 | 175.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.3 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.0 | 176.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 2.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 30.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 44.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 9.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.0% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 19.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | 2.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.78 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 62.8 |
| Stat | UT Martin | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 30.3% |
| Passing success rate | 41.6% | 30.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 23.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 30.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.7% | 51.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.2% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Martin schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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