Matchup analysis
Our model projects Southeast Missouri State 28, Tennessee State 18 at Nissan Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Southeast Missouri State wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 46.1 combined points.
Southeast Missouri State is 5-3 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game). Tennessee State is 2-6 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.5 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-13.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southeast Missouri State by 32 and Tennessee State by 13 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southeast Missouri State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4 | 17.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 31.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.25 | 4.83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93 | 6.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.4 | 83.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 210.5 | 230.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.1 | 181.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.4 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63 | 2.50 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 39.1% | 36.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 36.5% | 40.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 17.8% | 13.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 1.94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.48 | 3.03 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.1 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.4% | 32.5% |
| Passing success rate | 39.9% | 38.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8% | 26.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 28.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.0% | 43.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9% | 42.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 28.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.0% | 48.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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