Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southeast Missouri State 29.7, Central Arkansas 24.7 at Houck Field in Week 3. That is a lean: Southeast Missouri State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Central Arkansas is 2-1, scoring 36.3 and allowing 28.7 points per game (+7.6 per game). Southeast Missouri State is 1-2, scoring 17.7 and allowing 31 points per game (-13.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Arkansas by 18 and Southeast Missouri State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Southeast Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southeast Missouri State by about 2.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Arkansas 9, Southeast Missouri State 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13 points and the total by 18.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Arkansas / Southeast Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southeast Missouri State -3 → Southeast Missouri State -4 | 54.5 | +151 / -189 |
| DraftKings | Southeast Missouri State -3 → Southeast Missouri State -4 | 54.5 | +151 / -189 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southeast Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southeast Missouri State -5 | 54.4 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Southeast Missouri State -4 | 54.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Southeast Missouri State -4 | 54.9 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southeast Missouri State win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Southeast Missouri State -5 · market Southeast Missouri State -4 · difference +1.0 pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 54.5 · difference -0.1
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Southeast Missouri State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Arkansas 24.7, Southeast Missouri State 29.7 | Southeast Missouri State 63%right winner | 13.0 | 18.4 |
| New formula | Central Arkansas 26.8, Southeast Missouri State 30.4 | Southeast Missouri State 59%right winner | 14.5 | 21.2 |
Final: Central Arkansas 9, Southeast Missouri State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Arkansas vs Southeast Missouri State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5 | 23.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.2 | 30.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.22 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 6.37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.0 | 128.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.6 | 268.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 200.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.3 | 267.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 46.9% | 36.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 39.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 15.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67 | 3.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1 | 75.6 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2% | 35.0% |
| Passing success rate | 41.4% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0% | 23.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 30.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5% | 37.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5% | 63.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.3% | 69.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · Southeast Missouri State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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