Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana State 30.6, Southeast Missouri State 26.2 at Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) in Week 1. That is a lean: Indiana State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southeast Missouri State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Indiana State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southeast Missouri State by 18 and Indiana State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Indiana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana State by about 2.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southeast Missouri State 23, Indiana State 21. Southeast Missouri State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southeast Missouri State / Indiana State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana State -2.5 | 52.5 | +115 / -143 |
| DraftKings | Indiana State -2.5 | 52.5 | +115 / -143 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana State -4.5 | 56.7 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Indiana State -2.5 | 52.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Indiana State -3 | 53.3 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana State win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana State -4.4 · market Indiana State -2.5 · difference +1.9 pts (Indiana State view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 52.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Indiana State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southeast Missouri State 26.2, Indiana State 30.6 | Indiana State 61%wrong winner | 6.4 | 12.7 |
| New formula | Southeast Missouri State 21.8, Indiana State 33.0 | Indiana State 74%wrong winner | 13.2 | 10.8 |
Final: Southeast Missouri State 23, Indiana State 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southeast Missouri State vs Indiana State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 5.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 6.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 146.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.8 | 178.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.2 | 262.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6 | 255.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 34.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 50.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 15.1% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 0.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 59.0 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 36.3% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 33.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 24.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 38.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 29.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 52.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 13.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Indiana State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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