2026 schedule
Indiana State Sycamores
2026 season so far
Indiana State is 2-6 against the 19th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-9.3 per game).
Indiana State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Northern Iowa in Week 9. We project Indiana State 23, Northern Iowa 30 — Indiana State wins 31% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
1-0 · SOS #70
Loss 21-23
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Indiana State by 4.4
Total 56.8
DraftKings
INST -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 2. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 44 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana State -2.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +115 / -143 · Indiana State 56% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +6 pct pts (Indiana State view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - at
Purdue Boilermakers
1-0 · SOS #11
Loss 19-44
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Purdue by 31.7
Total 55.3
DraftKings
PUR -35.5
Total 55.5
Final Purdue by 25. Indiana State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Purdue -35.5 (open Purdue -35) · O/U 55.75 (open 56.25) · model vs market -3.8 pts (Purdue view)
BTN Ross-Ade Stadium - at
Eastern Illinois Panthers
1-2 · SOS #46
Win 42-35
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Eastern Illinois by 3.5
Total 51.9
DraftKings
INST -3
Total 49.5
Final Indiana State by 7. Indiana State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana State -3 (open Indiana State -1.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -154 / +124 · Eastern Illinois 42% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +17 pct pts (Eastern Illinois view)
ESPN+ O'Brien Field - vs
Valparaiso Beacons
1-2 · SOS #160
Win 39-16
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Indiana State by 5
Total 56
DraftKings
INST -22.5
Total 53.5
Final Indiana State by 23. Indiana State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana State -22.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +1060 / -2900 · Indiana State 92% no-vig · model vs market -17.5 pts, -29 pct pts (Indiana State view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - vs
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
4-1 · SOS #43
Loss 35-42
Week 4
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 13.5
Total 59.1
DraftKings
UND -17.5
Total 54.5
Final North Dakota by 7. Indiana State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -17.5 (open North Dakota -16.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 57.5) · ML -1320 / +710 · Indiana State 12% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +7 pct pts (Indiana State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - at
South Dakota Coyotes
4-2 · SOS #35
Loss 14-44
Week 5
Our number· pregame
South Dakota by 18.9
Total 62.3
DraftKings
SDAK -16.5
Total 60.5
Final South Dakota by 30. South Dakota beat the spread. 58 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -16.5 (open South Dakota -18.5) · O/U 60.5 · ML +586 / -960 · South Dakota 86% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +3 pct pts (South Dakota view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ The DakotaDome - vs
Youngstown State Penguins
5-2 · SOS #24
Loss 24-57
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Youngstown State by 16.3
Total 64.5
DraftKings
YSU -19.5
Total 64.5
Final Youngstown State by 33. Youngstown State beat the spread. 81 points — over the 64.5. The book was closer. Both totals were equally close.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Youngstown State -19.5 · O/U 64.5 · ML -1620 / +800 · Indiana State 11% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (Indiana State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - at
Illinois State Redbirds
6-2 · SOS #89
Loss 10-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 23.6
Total 58.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 7. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBMI)ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
Northern Iowa Panthers
3-4 · SOS #4
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-30 · 31%
Our number
Northern Iowa by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ UNI-Dome - vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
4-5 · SOS #30
Sat, Nov 7, 11:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 25-30 · 35%
Our number
Southern Illinois by 5
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - vs
Murray State Racers
1-7 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 36-22 · 82%
Our number
Indiana State by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - at
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6-2 · SOS #52
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 14-39 · 5%
Our number
South Dakota State by 25
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Indiana State Sycamores stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-25.1
Adj. offense
15.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 25.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 34.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.39 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.06 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 125.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 274.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 156.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 279.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.18 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 20.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.90 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 1.20 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 7 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.29 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 35.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 26.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 37.8% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 13.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 19.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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