Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 40.6, Indiana State 21.7 at The DakotaDome in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: South Dakota wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.9 points and 62.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Indiana State is 2-3, scoring 31.2 and allowing 32 points per game (-0.8 per game). South Dakota is 3-2, scoring 38 and allowing 30.2 points per game (+7.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana State by 4 and South Dakota by 41 about 80% of the time.
South Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Dakota by about 16.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Indiana State 14, South Dakota 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.1 points and the total by 4.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana State / South Dakota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota -18.5 → South Dakota -16.5 | 60.5 | +586 / -960 |
| DraftKings | South Dakota -18.5 → South Dakota -16.5 | 60.5 | +586 / -960 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Dakota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota -19 | 62.2 | 89% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota -16.5 | 60.5 | 86% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota -17 | 60.6 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Dakota win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model South Dakota -18.9 · market South Dakota -16.5 · difference +2.4 pts (South Dakota view)
- Total
- model 62.2 · market 60.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward South Dakota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana State 21.7, South Dakota 40.6 | South Dakota 89%right winner | 11.1 | 4.2 |
| New formula | Indiana State 21.9, South Dakota 39.3 | South Dakota 87%right winner | 12.5 | 3.2 |
Final: Indiana State 14, South Dakota 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana State vs South Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Indiana State | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 27.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.51 | 6.65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66 | 6.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6 | 198.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.6 | 201.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 262.6 | 153.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4 | 213.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 0.93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.73 | 1.07 |
| Stat | Indiana State | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 34.6% | 46.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 50.8% | 44.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 14.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1% | 11.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.78 | 1.57 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 60.1 |
| Stat | Indiana State | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 33.0% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 33.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.7% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.4% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6% | 45.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 17.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13.1% | 25.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana State schedule · South Dakota schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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