Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Purdue 43.5, Indiana State 11.8 at Ross-Ade Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Purdue wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.7 points and 55.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Indiana State is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 23 points per game (-2 per game). Purdue has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Indiana State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Purdue's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Purdue by 9 and Purdue by 54 about 80% of the time.
Purdue gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Purdue by about 29.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Indiana State 19, Purdue 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.7 points and the total by 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 2:34 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana State / Purdue) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Purdue -35 → Purdue -35.5 | 56.25 → 55.75 | — / — |
| Bovada | Purdue -35.5 | 56 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Purdue -34.5 → Purdue -35.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Purdue win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Purdue -31.5 | 55.3 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Purdue -35.5 | 55.8 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Purdue -35 | 56.1 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Purdue win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Purdue -31.7 · market Purdue -35.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Purdue view)
- Total
- model 55.3 · market 55.75 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Indiana State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana State 11.8, Purdue 43.5 | Purdue 98%right winner | 6.7 | 7.7 |
| New formula | Indiana State 13.1, Purdue 42.4 | Purdue 96%right winner | 4.2 | 7.5 |
Final: Indiana State 19, Purdue 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana State vs Purdue: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Indiana State | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 18.8#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 31.8#118 |
| Yards per play | 5.51 | 5.55#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66 | 6.79#132 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6 | 136.8#113 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.6 | 221.8#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 262.6 | 189.8#109 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4 | 234.0#97 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.50#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.50#130 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.92#73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.73 | 1.58#47 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.13#130 |
| Success rate | 34.6% | 42.3%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.8% | 47.9%#130 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 11.9%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 14.4%#121 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 10.6%#118 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1% | 11.1%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.46#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.78 | 4.26#109 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 28#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 28#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 64.6#91 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.07#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.11#114 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.07#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.21#128 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 42.9%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 33.0% | 41.8%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 19.0%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 34.9%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.7% | 31.2%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.4% | 41.0%#70 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6% | 45.3%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 50.0%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13.1% | 55.1%#34 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana State schedule · Purdue schedule · all Week 1 projections
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