Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 41.1, Indiana State 17.5 at Hancock Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Illinois State wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.6 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Indiana State is 2-5, scoring 27.7 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-9.6 per game). Illinois State is 5-2, scoring 37.7 and allowing 17.1 points per game (+20.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 1 and Illinois State by 46 about 80% of the time.
Illinois State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois State by about 21.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Indiana State 10, Illinois State 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.6 points and the total by 31.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana State 17.5, Illinois State 41.1 | Illinois State 94%right winner | 16.6 | 31.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Indiana State 10, Illinois State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana State vs Illinois State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Indiana State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 30.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.51 | 5.89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66 | 5.91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6 | 171.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.6 | 229.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 262.6 | 144.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4 | 236.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.35 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.73 | 1.06 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 34.6% | 45.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 50.8% | 42.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1% | 9.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.78 | 1.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 68.1 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 45.6% |
| Passing success rate | 33.0% | 45.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 15.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 36.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.7% | 31.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.4% | 45.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6% | 40.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 19.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13.1% | 23.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana State schedule · Illinois State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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