Matchup analysis
Our model projects Southern Illinois 30, Indiana State 25 at Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) in Week 10. That is a lean: Southern Illinois wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 55 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southern Illinois is 4-5 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-3.7 per game). Indiana State is 2-6 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-9.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Illinois by 28 and Indiana State by 17 about 80% of the time.
Indiana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Southern Illinois vs Indiana State: stat comparison
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.18 | 6.39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.06 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.1 | 125.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 188.9 | 274.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.1 | 156.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.2 | 279.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.11 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.89 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.22 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 15.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 13.5% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 20.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.40 | 0.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.21 | 1.20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.29 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 35.6% |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 26.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 28.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 37.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 41.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.5% | 13.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.4% | 19.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · Indiana State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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