Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota 36.3, Indiana State 22.8 at Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) in Week 4. That is a solid edge: North Dakota wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 59 combined points.
North Dakota is 3-1, scoring 39.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+13.5 per game). Indiana State is 2-2, scoring 30.3 and allowing 29.5 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Dakota by 36 and Indiana State by 9 about 80% of the time.
Indiana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Dakota 42, Indiana State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 18.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Dakota / Indiana State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota -16.5 → North Dakota -17.5 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -1320 / +710 |
| DraftKings | North Dakota -16.5 → North Dakota -17.5 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -1320 / +710 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota -13.5 | 59.0 | 19% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota -17.5 | 54.5 | 12% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota -17 | 55.2 | 12% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana State win probability
- model 19% · market (no-vig) 12% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model North Dakota -13.5 · market North Dakota -17.5 · difference +4.0 pts (Indiana State view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 54.5 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Indiana State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Dakota 36.3, Indiana State 22.8 | North Dakota 81%right winner | 6.5 | 18.0 |
| New formula | North Dakota 35.6, Indiana State 23.0 | North Dakota 80%right winner | 5.6 | 18.4 |
Final: North Dakota 42, Indiana State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Dakota vs Indiana State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Dakota | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.74 | 5.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99 | 6.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.7 | 146.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 178.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.6 | 262.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.0 | 255.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 2.73 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 34.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 50.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 15.1% |
| Havoc rate | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 18.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.25 | 0.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 59.0 |
| Stat | North Dakota | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5% | 36.3% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 33.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 24.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7% | 38.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7% | 29.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 52.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.4% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 13.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Dakota schedule · Indiana State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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