Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana State 30.5, Valparaiso 25.5 at Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) in Week 3. That is a lean: Indiana State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Valparaiso is 1-1, scoring 38.5 and allowing 20 points per game (+18.5 per game). Indiana State is 1-2, scoring 27.3 and allowing 34 points per game (-6.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 18 and Indiana State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Indiana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana State by about 2.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Valparaiso 16, Indiana State 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18 points and the total by 0.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Valparaiso / Indiana State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana State -22.5 | 53.5 | +1060 / -2900 |
| DraftKings | Indiana State -22.5 | 53.5 | +1060 / -2900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana State -5 | 55.9 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Indiana State -22.5 | 53.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Indiana State -19.5 | 54.2 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana State win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -29 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana State -5 · market Indiana State -22.5 · difference -17.5 pts (Indiana State view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 53.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 17.5 pts more toward Valparaiso than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Valparaiso 25.5, Indiana State 30.5 | Indiana State 63%right winner | 18.0 | 0.9 |
| New formula | Valparaiso 24.7, Indiana State 33.5 | Indiana State 71%right winner | 14.2 | 3.2 |
Final: Valparaiso 16, Indiana State 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Valparaiso vs Indiana State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Valparaiso | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.17 | 5.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.7 | 146.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.7 | 178.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 262.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 255.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.09 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 2.73 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 34.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 50.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 15.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 18.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 59.0 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.9% | 36.3% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 33.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.6% | 24.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 38.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 29.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 52.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 13.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · Indiana State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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