2026 schedule
Valparaiso Beacons
2026 season so far
Valparaiso is 4-4 against the 160th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+5.4 per game).
Valparaiso plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Dayton in Week 10. We project Valparaiso 17, Dayton 30 — Valparaiso wins 20% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Lawrence Tech Blue Devils
No record · SOS #161
Win 59-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Lawrence Tech by 5.1
Total 57.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Valparaiso by 46. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Murray State Racers
1-2 · SOS #15
Loss 18-27
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Murray State by 6.2
Total 54.6
DraftKings
MUR -14
Total 47.5
Final Murray State by 9. Valparaiso beat the spread. 45 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Murray State -14 (open Murray State -10.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 51.5) · ML +515 / -810 · Murray State 85% no-vig · model vs market -7.8 pts, -19 pct pts (Murray State view)
ESPN+ Roy Stewart Stadium - at
Indiana State Sycamores
2-2 · SOS #19
Loss 16-39
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Indiana State by 5
Total 56
DraftKings
INST -22.5
Total 53.5
Final Indiana State by 23. Indiana State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana State -22.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +1060 / -2900 · Indiana State 92% no-vig · model vs market -17.5 pts, -29 pct pts (Indiana State view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - vs
Butler Bulldogs
4-1 · SOS #111
Loss 28-33
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Butler by 9.2
Total 57.2
DraftKings
BTLR -6.5
Total 52.5
Final Butler by 5. Valparaiso beat the spread. 61 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -6.5 (open Butler -8.5) · O/U 52.5 · ML -244 / +191 · Valparaiso 33% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Valparaiso view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - at
Morehead State Eagles
1-4 · SOS #165
Win 37-3
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Valparaiso by 1.7
Total 59.7
DraftKings
VAL -3.5
Total 52.5
Final Valparaiso by 34. Valparaiso beat the spread. 40 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Valparaiso -3.5 (open Valparaiso -2.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 51.5) · ML -154 / +124 · Morehead State 42% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +3 pct pts (Morehead State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 69°F, Wind 11 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFGX)ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Drake Bulldogs
2-4 · SOS #112
Win 21-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Drake by 0.6
Total 55.6
DraftKings
DRKE -9.5
Total 57.5
Final Valparaiso by 8. Valparaiso beat the spread. 34 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Drake -9.5 (open Drake -8.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 53.5) · ML -397 / +294 · Valparaiso 24% no-vig · model vs market +8.9 pts, +24 pct pts (Valparaiso view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - at
San Diego Toreros
3-4 · SOS #93
Loss 13-38
Week 7
Our number· pregame
San Diego by 2.1
Total 55.1
DraftKings
USD -6
Total 51.5
Final San Diego by 25. San Diego beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -6 (open San Diego -5.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +208 / -269 · San Diego 69% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -14 pct pts (San Diego view)
Game-time weather: 93°F, Wind 2 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (E9873)ESPN+ Torero StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Presbyterian Blue Hose
4-4 · SOS #145
Win 24-7
Week 8
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Valparaiso by 17. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 7 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - at
Dayton Flyers
6-1 · SOS #159
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 17-30 · 20%
Our number
Dayton by 13
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
YouTube Welcome StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - at
Stetson Hatters
1-7 · SOS #110
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 33-23 · 74%
Our number
Valparaiso by 10
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Spec Martin Memorial StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
St. Thomas Tommies
6-2 · SOS #127
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-33 · 22%
Our number
St. Thomas by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Brown Field
Times shown in your local time
Valparaiso Beacons stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-29.4
Adj. offense
10.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
39.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 21.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.10 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.69 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 101.3 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 212.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 212.7 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 175.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.71 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.57 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 36.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 7.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.0% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.05 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.06 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.18 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 23.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 36.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 32.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 45.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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