Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Murray State 30.4, Valparaiso 24.2 at Roy Stewart Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Murray State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Valparaiso is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 13 points per game (+46 per game). Murray State is 0-2, scoring 14 and allowing 33 points per game (-19 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 16 and Murray State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Murray State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Murray State by about 4.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Valparaiso 18, Murray State 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.8 points and the total by 9.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Valparaiso / Murray State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Murray State -10.5 → Murray State -14 | 51.5 → 47.5 | +515 / -810 |
| DraftKings | Murray State -10.5 → Murray State -14 | 51.5 → 47.5 | +515 / -810 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Murray State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Murray State -6 | 54.6 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Murray State -14 | 47.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | Murray State -13 | 48.9 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Murray State win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -19 pts
- Margin
- model Murray State -6.2 · market Murray State -14 · difference -7.8 pts (Murray State view)
- Total
- model 54.6 · market 47.5 · difference +7.1
Model margin is 7.8 pts more toward Valparaiso than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Valparaiso 24.2, Murray State 30.4 | Murray State 66%right winner | 2.8 | 9.6 |
| New formula | Valparaiso 29.4, Murray State 29.1 | Valparaiso 51%wrong winner | 9.3 | 13.5 |
Final: Valparaiso 18, Murray State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Valparaiso vs Murray State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Valparaiso | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 38.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.17 | 5.45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.7 | 155.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.7 | 232.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 290.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 242.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.09 | 1.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.73 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 0.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.21 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 53.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 11.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 15.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 9.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 2.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.34 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 71.3 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.9% | 41.2% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.6% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 42.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 55.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 48.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · Murray State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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