Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Valparaiso 30.7, Morehead State 29 at Phil Simms Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Valparaiso wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 59.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Valparaiso is 1-3, scoring 30.3 and allowing 28 points per game (+2.3 per game). Morehead State is 1-3, scoring 31 and allowing 47 points per game (-16 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 24 and Morehead State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Morehead State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Valparaiso is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Valparaiso 37, Morehead State 3. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 32.3 points and the total by 19.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Valparaiso / Morehead State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Valparaiso -2.5 → Valparaiso -3.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | -154 / +124 |
| DraftKings | Valparaiso -2.5 → Valparaiso -3.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | -154 / +124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Morehead State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Valparaiso -1.5 | 59.6 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Valparaiso -3.5 | 52.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Valparaiso -3 | 53.5 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Morehead State win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Valparaiso -1.7 · market Valparaiso -3.5 · difference +1.8 pts (Morehead State view)
- Total
- model 59.6 · market 52.5 · difference +7.1
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Morehead State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Valparaiso 30.7, Morehead State 29.0 | Valparaiso 54%right winner | 32.3 | 19.6 |
| New formula | Valparaiso 30.4, Morehead State 28.7 | Valparaiso 54%right winner | 32.3 | 19.0 |
Final: Valparaiso 37, Morehead State 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Valparaiso vs Morehead State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Valparaiso | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 29.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.17 | 5.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.7 | 144.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.7 | 196.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 232.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 183.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.09 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 1.83 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 40.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 11.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 2.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 59.0 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.9% | 39.0% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 47.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.6% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 47.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · Morehead State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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