Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Butler 33.2, Valparaiso 24 at Brown Field in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Butler wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 57.1 combined points.
Butler is 3-1, scoring 37.5 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+14 per game). Valparaiso is 1-2, scoring 31 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+4.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Butler by 32 and Valparaiso by 13 about 80% of the time.
Valparaiso gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Butler is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Butler 33, Valparaiso 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.2 points and the total by 3.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Butler / Valparaiso) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Butler -8.5 → Butler -6.5 | 52.5 | -244 / +191 |
| DraftKings | Butler -8.5 → Butler -6.5 | 52.5 | -244 / +191 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Valparaiso win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Butler -9 | 57.1 | 27% |
| Market consensus | Butler -6.5 | 52.5 | 33% |
| Blended projection | Butler -7 | 53.4 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Valparaiso win probability
- model 27% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Butler -9.2 · market Butler -6.5 · difference -2.7 pts (Valparaiso view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 52.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Butler than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Butler 33.2, Valparaiso 24.0 | Butler 73%right winner | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| New formula | Butler 33.4, Valparaiso 23.3 | Butler 75%right winner | 5.1 | 4.2 |
Final: Butler 33, Valparaiso 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Butler vs Valparaiso: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Butler | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 35.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.37 | 5.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.95 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.4 | 132.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 166.5 | 179.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.8 | 196.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 216.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 2.09 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 1.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.18 | 2.64 |
| Stat | Butler | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 41.5% | 36.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5 | 60.5 |
| Stat | Butler | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.9% | 31.9% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 42.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2% | 25.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 27.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4% | 30.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Butler schedule · Valparaiso schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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