Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San Diego 28.6, Valparaiso 26.5 at Torero Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: San Diego wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 55 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Valparaiso is 3-3, scoring 29.8 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). San Diego is 2-4, scoring 27 and allowing 41.3 points per game (-14.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 20 and San Diego by 25 about 80% of the time.
San Diego gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Valparaiso would be dead even. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Valparaiso 13, San Diego 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.9 points and the total by 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Valparaiso / San Diego) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego -5.5 → San Diego -6 | 51.5 | +208 / -269 |
| DraftKings | San Diego -5.5 → San Diego -6 | 51.5 | +208 / -269 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego -2 | 55.0 | 55% |
| Market consensus | San Diego -6 | 51.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | San Diego -5.5 | 52.4 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model San Diego -2.1 · market San Diego -6 · difference -3.9 pts (San Diego view)
- Total
- model 55.0 · market 51.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Valparaiso than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Valparaiso 26.5, San Diego 28.6 | San Diego 55%right winner | 22.9 | 4.0 |
| New formula | Valparaiso 25.8, San Diego 28.9 | San Diego 58%right winner | 21.9 | 3.7 |
Final: Valparaiso 13, San Diego 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Valparaiso vs San Diego: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Valparaiso | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 28.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.17 | 5.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 5.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.7 | 165.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.7 | 197.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 128.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 227.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.09 | 0.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.73 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 3.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 37.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 39.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.9% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 39.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.6% | 21.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · San Diego schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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