Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lawrence Tech 31.1, Valparaiso 26 at Brown Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Lawrence Tech wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 57 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Lawrence Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Valparaiso has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lawrence Tech by 28 and Valparaiso by 17 about 80% of the time.
Valparaiso gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lawrence Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lawrence Tech 13, Valparaiso 59. Valparaiso won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 51.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lawrence Tech 31.1, Valparaiso 26.0 | Lawrence Tech 63%wrong winner | 51.1 | 15.0 |
| New formula | Lawrence Tech 27.0, Valparaiso 27.7 | Valparaiso 52%right winner | 45.3 | 17.2 |
Final: Lawrence Tech 13, Valparaiso 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Lawrence Tech schedule · Valparaiso schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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