Matchup analysis
Our model projects Dayton 30, Valparaiso 17 at Welcome Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Dayton wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 47.5 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Valparaiso is 4-4 against the 160th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+5.4 per game). Dayton is 6-1 against the 159th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32 and allowing 20 points per game (+12 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 10 and Dayton by 35 about 80% of the time.
Dayton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dayton by about 10.7. The game is on YouTube.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Valparaiso vs Dayton: stat comparison
| Stat | Valparaiso | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0 | 32.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.6 | 20.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69 | 5.95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 101.3 | 150.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.9 | 221.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 212.7 | 109.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 275.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 2.57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86 | 0.71 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 39.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 40.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 7.6% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0% | 10.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.05 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6 | 65.9 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 39.6% | 44.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6% | 28.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1% | 31.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 43.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.3% | 43.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.3% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · Dayton schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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