2026 schedule
Dayton Flyers
2026 season so far
Dayton is 6-1 against the 159th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32 and allowing 20 points per game (+12 per game).
Dayton plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Stetson in Week 9. We project Dayton 39, Stetson 18 — Dayton wins 92% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Fairmont State Falcons
0-1 · SOS #41
Win 43-20
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 7.5
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Dayton by 23. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
YouTube Welcome Stadium - vs
Thomas More College Saints
0-2 · SOS #42
Win 30-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 8.1
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Dayton by 23. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
YouTube Welcome Stadium - at
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
1-3 · SOS #36
Win 17-14
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 3.7
Total 54.3
DraftKings
EKU -11.5
Total 46.5
Final Dayton by 3. Dayton beat the spread. 31 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Kentucky -11.5 (open Eastern Kentucky -10) · O/U 46.5 (open 45.5) · ML +317 / -436 · Eastern Kentucky 77% no-vig · model vs market -15.2 pts, -37 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
ESPN+ Roy Kidd Stadium - at
Drake Bulldogs
2-3 · SOS #112
Loss 22-30
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 1.6
Total 51.8
DraftKings
DAY -3
Total 56.5
Final Drake by 8. Drake beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dayton -3 (open Dayton -5.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 53.5) · ML -150 / +120 · Drake 43% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +3 pct pts (Drake view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 14 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDSM)ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - vs
Morehead State Eagles
1-5 · SOS #165
Win 56-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 21.7
Total 51.9
DraftKings
DAY -21.5
Total 54.5
Final Dayton by 28. Dayton beat the spread. 84 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dayton -21.5 (open Dayton -20.5) · O/U 54.5 · ML +1180 / -4000 · Dayton 93% no-vig · model vs market +0.2 pts, -0 pct pts (Dayton view)
Game-time weather: 67°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFFO)YouTube Welcome Stadium - at
Butler Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #111
Win 19-9
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Butler by 6.2
Total 53.8
DraftKings
BTLR -5.5
Total 50.5
Final Dayton by 10. Dayton beat the spread. 28 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -5.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 48.5) · ML +174 / -221 · Butler 65% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +0 pct pts (Butler view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEYE)ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl - vs
San Diego Toreros
3-5 · SOS #93
Win 37-32
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 9
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Dayton by 5. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFFO)Welcome Stadium - at
Stetson Hatters
1-7 · SOS #110
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 39-18 · 92%
Our number
Dayton by 21
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 81°F, Wind 15 mph E, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 8:35 AM EDTYouTube Spec Martin Memorial Stadium - vs
Valparaiso Beacons
4-4 · SOS #160
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 30-17 · 80%
Our number
Dayton by 13
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
YouTube Welcome Stadium - vs
Davidson Wildcats
3-5 · SOS #171
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 42-14 · 96%
Our number
Dayton by 28
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Welcome Stadium - at
Presbyterian Blue Hose
4-4 · SOS #145
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-23 · 71%
Our number
Dayton by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bailey Memorial Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Dayton Flyers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-17.2
Adj. offense
16.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
34.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.64 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.95 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 150.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 221.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 109.7 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 275.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.57 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.57 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.71 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.08 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 38.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.2% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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