Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dayton 28.9, Thomas More College 20.8 at Welcome Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Dayton wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 49.6 combined points.
Thomas More College has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Dayton is 1-0, scoring 43 and allowing 20 points per game (+23 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Thomas More College by 14 and Dayton by 31 about 80% of the time.
Dayton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dayton by about 6. The game is on YouTube.
Result: Thomas More College 7, Dayton 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.9 points and the total by 12.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Thomas More College 20.8, Dayton 28.9 | Dayton 70%right winner | 14.9 | 12.6 |
| New formula | Thomas More College 13.3, Dayton 37.5 | Dayton 92%right winner | 1.2 | 13.8 |
Final: Thomas More College 7, Dayton 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Thomas More College vs Dayton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Thomas More College | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.5 | 27.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.5 | 17.4 |
| Yards per play | 3.86 | 5.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 68.0 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 146.5 | 207.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 177.5 | 149.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.0 | 196.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.50 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.73 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.82 |
| Stat | Thomas More College | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.26 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 51.1% | 38.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.2% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 6.2% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.57 | 2.89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.81 | 3.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.5 | 62.1 |
| Stat | Thomas More College | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.31 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.23 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.0% | 37.2% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 40.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 32.9% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.2% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 39.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 10.0% | 47.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 12.7% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Thomas More College schedule · Dayton schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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