Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dayton 29.3, Fairmont State 21.8 at Welcome Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Dayton wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.5 points and 51.1 combined points.
Fairmont State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Dayton has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fairmont State by 15 and Dayton by 30 about 80% of the time.
Dayton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dayton by about 5.4. The game is on YouTube.
Result: Fairmont State 20, Dayton 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.5 points and the total by 11.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fairmont State 21.8, Dayton 29.3 | Dayton 69%right winner | 15.5 | 11.9 |
| New formula | Fairmont State 18.5, Dayton 32.1 | Dayton 79%right winner | 9.4 | 12.4 |
Final: Fairmont State 20, Dayton 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Fairmont State schedule · Dayton schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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