Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Butler 30, Dayton 23.8 at Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl in Week 7. That is a lean: Butler wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 53.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Dayton is 4-1, scoring 33.6 and allowing 19.8 points per game (+13.8 per game). Butler is 5-1, scoring 37.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+15.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dayton by 16 and Butler by 29 about 80% of the time.
Butler gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Butler by about 4.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Dayton 19, Butler 9. Dayton won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Dayton / Butler) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Butler -5.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | +174 / -221 |
| DraftKings | Butler -5.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | +174 / -221 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Butler win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Butler -6 | 53.8 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Butler -5.5 | 50.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Butler -5.5 | 51.4 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Butler win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Butler -6.2 · market Butler -5.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Butler view)
- Total
- model 53.8 · market 50.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Butler than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Dayton 23.8, Butler 30.0 | Butler 66%wrong winner | 16.2 | 25.8 |
| New formula | Dayton 24.0, Butler 29.6 | Butler 64%wrong winner | 15.6 | 25.6 |
Final: Dayton 19, Butler 9. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Dayton vs Butler: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Dayton | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.4 | 25.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.87 | 5.37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.0 | 179.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 207.6 | 166.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.8 | 153.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 187.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.73 | 0.55 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.82 | 1.18 |
| Stat | Dayton | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 36.5% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.7% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 10.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.27 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.1 | 64.5 |
| Stat | Dayton | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2% | 41.9% |
| Passing success rate | 40.7% | 41.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 16.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 34.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7% | 44.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6% | 42.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Dayton schedule · Butler schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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