Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dayton 31.3, San Diego 22.3 at Welcome Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Dayton wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 53.6 combined points.
San Diego is 3-4, scoring 28.6 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-8.7 per game). Dayton is 5-1, scoring 31.2 and allowing 18 points per game (+13.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego by 14 and Dayton by 32 about 80% of the time.
Dayton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dayton by about 6.9.
Result: San Diego 32, Dayton 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4 points and the total by 15.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego 22.3, Dayton 31.3 | Dayton 72%right winner | 4.0 | 15.4 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: San Diego 32, Dayton 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego vs Dayton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 27.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 17.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.54 | 5.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 5.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9 | 207.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.3 | 149.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.3 | 196.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.73 |
| Sacks per game | 3.08 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 1.82 |
| Stat | San Diego | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 38.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 62.1 |
| Stat | San Diego | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 37.2% |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 40.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.0% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 39.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 47.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego schedule · Dayton schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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