Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dayton 36.8, Morehead State 15.1 at Welcome Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Dayton wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.7 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Morehead State is 1-4, scoring 25.4 and allowing 45 points per game (-19.6 per game). Dayton is 3-1, scoring 28 and allowing 17.8 points per game (+10.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morehead State by 1 and Dayton by 44 about 80% of the time.
Dayton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Dayton by about 19.6. The game is on YouTube.
Result: Morehead State 28, Dayton 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.3 points and the total by 32.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morehead State / Dayton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Dayton -20.5 → Dayton -21.5 | 54.5 | +1180 / -4000 |
| DraftKings | Dayton -20.5 → Dayton -21.5 | 54.5 | +1180 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Dayton win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Dayton -21.5 | 51.9 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Dayton -21.5 | 54.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Dayton -21.5 | 54.8 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Dayton win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Dayton -21.7 · market Dayton -21.5 · difference +0.2 pts (Dayton view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 54.5 · difference -2.6
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morehead State 15.1, Dayton 36.8 | Dayton 92%right winner | 6.3 | 32.1 |
| New formula | Morehead State 13.6, Dayton 38.5 | Dayton 95%right winner | 3.1 | 31.9 |
Final: Morehead State 28, Dayton 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morehead State vs Dayton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morehead State | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 27.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 17.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.78 | 5.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 5.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.8 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.3 | 207.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 232.8 | 149.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9 | 196.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83 | 1.82 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 38.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 2.89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 62.1 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0% | 37.2% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 40.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 39.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 47.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehead State schedule · Dayton schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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