Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dayton 26.7, Drake 25.1 at Drake Stadium (IA) in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Dayton wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 51.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Dayton is 3-0, scoring 30 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+16.3 per game). Drake is 1-3, scoring 27.5 and allowing 42.8 points per game (-15.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dayton by 24 and Drake by 21 about 80% of the time.
Drake gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Dayton is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Dayton 22, Drake 30. Drake won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Dayton / Drake) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Dayton -5.5 → Dayton -3 | 53.5 → 56.5 | -150 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Dayton -5.5 → Dayton -3 | 53.5 → 56.5 | -150 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Drake win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Dayton -1.5 | 51.7 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Dayton -3 | 56.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | Dayton -3 | 56.5 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Drake win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Dayton -1.6 · market Dayton -3 · difference +1.4 pts (Drake view)
- Total
- model 51.7 · market 56.5 · difference -4.8
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Drake than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Dayton 26.7, Drake 25.1 | Dayton 54%wrong winner | 9.6 | 0.3 |
| New formula | Dayton 27.5, Drake 24.5 | Dayton 58%wrong winner | 10.9 | 0.0 |
Final: Dayton 22, Drake 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Dayton vs Drake: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Dayton | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.4 | 17.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.87 | 6.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.0 | 211.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 207.6 | 159.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.8 | 151.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.0 | 182.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.73 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.82 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Dayton | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 36.5% | 42.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.7% | 42.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.27 | 2.06 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.1 | 61.1 |
| Stat | Dayton | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2% | 44.2% |
| Passing success rate | 40.7% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 28.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6% | 38.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 36.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Dayton schedule · Drake schedule · all Week 5 projections
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