2026 schedule
Drake Bulldogs
2026 season so far
Drake is 2-6 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.5 and allowing 34.3 points per game (-9.8 per game).
Drake plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Morehead State in Week 9. We project Drake 35, Morehead State 24 — Drake wins 77% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
South Dakota Mines Hardrockers
1-0 · SOS #150
Loss 35-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Drake by 9
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
Final South Dakota Mines by 3. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - at
Montana Grizzlies
2-0 · SOS #50
Loss 10-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana by 12.9
Total 55.9
DraftKings
MONT -35.5
Total 60.5
Final Montana by 35. Drake beat the spread. 55 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -35.5 (open Montana -34.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 57.5) · model vs market -22.6 pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Northern Iowa Panthers
1-1 · SOS #4
Loss 14-56
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Northern Iowa by 5.5
Total 46.9
DraftKings
UNI -11.5
Total 59.5
Final Northern Iowa by 42. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 70 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Iowa -11.5 (open Northern Iowa -10.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 54.5) · ML +368 / -521 · Northern Iowa 80% no-vig · model vs market -6.0 pts, -16 pct pts (Northern Iowa view)
ESPN+ UNI-Dome - at
Davidson Wildcats
2-3 · SOS #171
Win 51-32
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Drake by 9.5
Total 57.5
DraftKings
DRKE -11.5
Total 58.5
Final Drake by 19. Drake beat the spread. 83 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Drake -11.5 (open Drake -12.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 53.5) · ML -433 / +316 · Davidson 23% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Davidson view)
Game-time weather: 79°F, Wind 7 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJQF)ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) - vs
Dayton Flyers
3-1 · SOS #159
Win 30-22
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 1.6
Total 51.8
DraftKings
DAY -3
Total 56.5
Final Drake by 8. Drake beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dayton -3 (open Dayton -5.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 53.5) · ML -150 / +120 · Drake 43% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +3 pct pts (Drake view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 14 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDSM)ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - at
Valparaiso Beacons
3-3 · SOS #160
Loss 13-21
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Drake by 0.6
Total 55.6
DraftKings
DRKE -9.5
Total 57.5
Final Valparaiso by 8. Valparaiso beat the spread. 34 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Drake -9.5 (open Drake -8.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 53.5) · ML -397 / +294 · Valparaiso 24% no-vig · model vs market +8.9 pts, +24 pct pts (Valparaiso view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown Field - vs
Marist Red Foxes
4-3 · SOS #154
Loss 22-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Drake by 4.3
Total 49.1
DraftKings
DRKE -3
Total 51.5
Final Marist by 5. Marist beat the spread. 49 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Drake -3 (open Drake -4.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 48.5) · ML +147 / -184 · Drake 62% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, -0 pct pts (Drake view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 9 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDSM)ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - vs
Butler Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #111
Loss 21-33
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Butler by 6.8
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Butler by 12. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDSM)ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - at
Morehead State Eagles
2-6 · SOS #165
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-24 · 77%
Our number
Drake by 11
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 3 mph ESE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Phil Simms Stadium - vs
San Diego Toreros
3-5 · SOS #93
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 29-30 · 47%
Our number
San Diego by 1
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA) - at
St. Thomas Tommies
6-2 · SOS #127
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 22-36 · 17%
Our number
St. Thomas by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
O'Shaughnessy Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Drake Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-28.0
Adj. offense
12.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 34.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.95 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.93 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 115.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 341.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 164.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 251.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 2.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.14 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 76.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.02 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.21 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 24.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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