Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Drake 26.7, Marist 22.4 at Drake Stadium (IA) in Week 7. That is a lean: Drake wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 49 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Marist is 3-3, scoring 25.8 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). Drake is 2-4, scoring 25.5 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-10.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marist by 18 and Drake by 27 about 80% of the time.
Drake gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Drake by about 2.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Marist 27, Drake 22. Marist won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marist / Drake) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Drake -4.5 → Drake -3 | 48.5 → 51.5 | +147 / -184 |
| DraftKings | Drake -4.5 → Drake -3 | 48.5 → 51.5 | +147 / -184 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Drake win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Drake -4.5 | 49.0 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Drake -3 | 51.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Drake -3 | 52.0 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Drake win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Drake -4.3 · market Drake -3 · difference +1.3 pts (Drake view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 51.5 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Drake than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marist 22.4, Drake 26.7 | Drake 61%wrong winner | 9.3 | 0.0 |
| New formula | Marist 23.1, Drake 26.4 | Drake 58%wrong winner | 8.2 | 0.5 |
Final: Marist 27, Drake 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marist vs Drake: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Marist | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.7 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5 | 17.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.23 | 6.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70 | 5.55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.8 | 211.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.0 | 159.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.9 | 151.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 182.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Marist | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 42.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 42.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 11.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 2.06 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.2 | 61.1 |
| Stat | Marist | Drake |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 44.2% |
| Passing success rate | 35.4% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 28.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.2% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 38.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 36.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marist schedule · Drake schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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