Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Iowa 26.2, Drake 20.7 at UNI-Dome in Week 2. That is a lean: Northern Iowa wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Drake is 0-2, scoring 22.5 and allowing 41.5 points per game (-19 per game). Northern Iowa is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 34 points per game (-10 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Drake by 17 and Northern Iowa by 28 about 80% of the time.
Northern Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Iowa by about 3.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Drake 14, Northern Iowa 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 36.5 points and the total by 23.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Drake / Northern Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Iowa -10.5 → Northern Iowa -11.5 | 54.5 → 59.5 | +368 / -521 |
| DraftKings | Northern Iowa -10.5 → Northern Iowa -11.5 | 54.5 → 59.5 | +368 / -521 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Iowa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Iowa -5.5 | 46.9 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Northern Iowa -11.5 | 59.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Northern Iowa -10.5 | 58.8 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Iowa win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Iowa -5.5 · market Northern Iowa -11.5 · difference -6.0 pts (Northern Iowa view)
- Total
- model 46.9 · market 59.5 · difference -12.6
Model margin is 6.0 pts more toward Drake than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Drake 20.7, Northern Iowa 26.2 | Northern Iowa 64%right winner | 36.5 | 23.1 |
| New formula | Drake 21.3, Northern Iowa 30.5 | Northern Iowa 71%right winner | 32.8 | 18.2 |
Final: Drake 14, Northern Iowa 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Drake vs Northern Iowa: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Drake | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3 | 17.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.7 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.07 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.55 | 6.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 211.3 | 140.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.3 | 186.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 151.6 | 196.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.3 | 204.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 2.42 |
| Stat | Drake | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 42.6% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8% | 45.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 1.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.06 | 1.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Drake | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 42.4% | 38.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 25.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 39.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 25.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.6% | 33.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Drake schedule · Northern Iowa schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.