Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Drake 28.9, South Dakota Mines 19.9 at Drake Stadium (IA) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Drake wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 48.8 combined points.
South Dakota Mines has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Drake has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota Mines by 14 and Drake by 32 about 80% of the time.
Drake gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Drake by about 6.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Dakota Mines 38, Drake 35. South Dakota Mines won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota Mines 19.9, Drake 28.9 | Drake 72%wrong winner | 12.0 | 24.2 |
| New formula | South Dakota Mines 16.4, Drake 34.0 | Drake 85%wrong winner | 20.6 | 22.6 |
Final: South Dakota Mines 38, Drake 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: South Dakota Mines schedule · Drake schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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