Matchup analysis
Our model projects St. Thomas 33, Valparaiso 21 at Brown Field in Week 12. That is a solid edge: St. Thomas wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 54.2 combined points.
St. Thomas is 6-2 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.9 and allowing 27.1 points per game (+9.8 per game). Valparaiso is 4-4 against the 160th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+5.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between St. Thomas by 34 and Valparaiso by 11 about 80% of the time.
Valparaiso gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. St. Thomas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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St. Thomas vs Valparaiso: stat comparison
| Stat | St. Thomas | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.9 | 27.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.1 | 21.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.95 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.05 | 5.69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.6 | 101.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.4 | 212.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.9 | 212.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.9 | 175.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50 | 1.86 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 43.8% | 36.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 7.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 61.6 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | Valparaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8% | 37.1% |
| Passing success rate | 44.6% | 39.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 21.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 23.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 27.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.5% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0% | 32.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 45.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: St. Thomas schedule · Valparaiso schedule · all Week 12 projections
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