2026 schedule
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
2026 season so far
St. Thomas-Minnesota has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
St. Thomas-Minnesota plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
St. Thomas-Minnesota has no more games on the 2026 regular-season schedule.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Winona State Warriors
0-1 · SOS #23
Win 15-9
Week 1
O'Shaughnessy Stadium - at
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
2-0 · SOS #43
Loss 26-62
Week 1
Market lines: North Dakota -28.5 (open North Dakota -27.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5)
ESPN+ Alerus Center - vs
Northern Michigan Wildcats
0-3 · SOS #22
Win 56-14
Week 2
O'Shaughnessy Stadium - vs
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
1-3 · SOS #38
Win 28-26
Week 3
Market lines: Southern Utah -12.5 (open Southern Utah -14) · O/U 62.5 (open 57.5) · ML -398 / +294 · St. Thomas-Minnesota 24% no-vig
O'Shaughnessy Stadium - vs
San Diego Toreros
1-3 · SOS #93
Win 50-17
Week 4
Market lines: St. Thomas-Minnesota -5.5 · O/U 57.5 (open 58.5) · ML +143 / -179 · St. Thomas-Minnesota 61% no-vig
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 61°F, Wind 11 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSP)O'Shaughnessy Stadium - at
Presbyterian Blue Hose
2-3 · SOS #145
Loss 21-55
Week 5
Market lines: St. Thomas-Minnesota -28.5 (open St. Thomas-Minnesota -24.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 54.5) · ML -7400 / +1400 · Presbyterian 6% no-vig
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLUX)ESPN+ Bailey Memorial Stadium - vs
Stetson Hatters
1-5 · SOS #110
Win 64-21
Week 6
Market lines: St. Thomas-Minnesota -22.5 · O/U 52.5 (open 49.5) · ML +990 / -2500 · St. Thomas-Minnesota 91% no-vig
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 15 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTP)O'Shaughnessy Stadium - at
Marist Red Foxes
4-4 · SOS #154
Win 35-13
Week 8
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind 3 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPOU)ESPN+ Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field - vs
Davidson Wildcats
3-5 · SOS #171
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 52°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 45% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTO'Shaughnessy Stadium - at
Butler Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl - vs
Drake Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #112
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
O'Shaughnessy Stadium - at
Valparaiso Beacons
4-4 · SOS #160
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
ESPN+ Brown Field
Times shown in your local time
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.6
Adj. offense
21.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 36.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.95 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.05 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 196.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 253.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 157.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 255.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.25 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 43.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 35.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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