Matchup analysis
Our model projects St. Thomas 47, Davidson 16 at O'Shaughnessy Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: St. Thomas wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.9 points and 62.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Davidson is 3-5 against the 171st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 37.5 points per game (-13.6 per game). St. Thomas is 6-2 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.9 and allowing 27.1 points per game (+9.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between St. Thomas by 8 and St. Thomas by 53 about 80% of the time.
St. Thomas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour St. Thomas by about 28.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Davidson vs St. Thomas: stat comparison
| Stat | Davidson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9 | 36.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.5 | 27.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 6.95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.53 | 6.05 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 196.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 248.5 | 253.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 211.1 | 157.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.1 | 255.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.88 | 0.50 |
| Stat | Davidson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 34.4% | 43.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.6% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.67 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.6 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Davidson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.29 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 46.8% |
| Passing success rate | 38.3% | 44.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.0% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.6% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.9% | 46.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0% | 35.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.1% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Davidson schedule · St. Thomas schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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