Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected St. Thomas 36, Presbyterian 24.2 at Bailey Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: St. Thomas wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 60.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
St. Thomas is 4-1, scoring 35 and allowing 25.6 points per game (+9.4 per game). Presbyterian is 1-3, scoring 17.8 and allowing 49.8 points per game (-32 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between St. Thomas by 34 and Presbyterian by 11 about 80% of the time.
Presbyterian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. St. Thomas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: St. Thomas 21, Presbyterian 55. Presbyterian won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 45.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (St. Thomas / Presbyterian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | St. Thomas -24.5 → St. Thomas -28.5 | 54.5 → 61.5 | -7400 / +1400 |
| DraftKings | St. Thomas -24.5 → St. Thomas -28.5 | 54.5 → 61.5 | -7400 / +1400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Presbyterian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | St. Thomas -12 | 60.2 | 22% |
| Market consensus | St. Thomas -28.5 | 61.5 | 6% |
| Blended projection | St. Thomas -26 | 61.3 | 4% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Presbyterian win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 6% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model St. Thomas -11.8 · market St. Thomas -28.5 · difference +16.7 pts (Presbyterian view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 61.5 · difference -1.3
Model margin is 16.7 pts more toward Presbyterian than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | St. Thomas 36.0, Presbyterian 24.2 | St. Thomas 78%wrong winner | 45.8 | 15.8 |
| New formula | St. Thomas 36.2, Presbyterian 23.2 | St. Thomas 80%wrong winner | 47.0 | 16.5 |
Final: St. Thomas 21, Presbyterian 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
St. Thomas vs Presbyterian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | St. Thomas | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9 | 34.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5 | 16.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.59 | 6.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 4.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.9 | 183.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.6 | 254.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.9 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.4 | 149.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.09 |
| Success rate | 42.3% | 46.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 39.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Havoc rate | 16.7% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17 | 2.52 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7 | 63.7 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 47.8% |
| Passing success rate | 46.5% | 49.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 32.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 24.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4% | 31.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 42.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: St. Thomas schedule · Presbyterian schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.