2026 schedule
Presbyterian Blue Hose
2026 season so far
Presbyterian is 4-4 against the 145th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.3 and allowing 38.5 points per game (-11.2 per game).
Presbyterian plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Butler in Week 9. We project Presbyterian 23, Butler 33 — Presbyterian wins 26% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
UVA Wise Cavaliers
0-1 · SOS #158
Win 47-37
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Presbyterian by 10.3
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Presbyterian by 10. 84 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bailey Memorial Stadium - at
Mercer Bears
2-0 · SOS #130
Loss 3-62
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 6
Total 57.6
DraftKings
MER -22.5
Total 54.5
Final Mercer by 59. Mercer beat the spread. 65 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -22.5 (open Mercer -21.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.5) · ML +920 / -2100 · Mercer 91% no-vig · model vs market -16.5 pts, -25 pct pts (Mercer view)
ESPN+ Five Star StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Western Carolina Catamounts
2-2 · SOS #27
Loss 14-58
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Western Carolina by 14.3
Total 60.9
DraftKings
WCU -33.5
Total 66.5
Final Western Carolina by 44. Western Carolina beat the spread. 72 points — over the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Carolina -33.5 (open Western Carolina -28.5) · O/U 66.5 (open 62.5) · model vs market -19.2 pts (Western Carolina view)
ESPN+ E.J. Whitmire StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
Marist Red Foxes
2-2 · SOS #154
Loss 7-42
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Marist by 5.9
Total 51.9
DraftKings
MRST -8.5
Total 44.5
Final Marist by 35. Marist beat the spread. 49 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marist -8.5 · O/U 44.5 (open 46.5) · ML +203 / -262 · Marist 69% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -4 pct pts (Marist view)
ESPN+ Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff FieldPregame calls · how each did
- vs
St. Thomas Tommies
4-2 · SOS #127
Win 55-21
Week 5
Our number· pregame
St. Thomas by 11.8
Total 60.2
DraftKings
STMN -28.5
Total 61.5
Final Presbyterian by 34. Presbyterian beat the spread. 76 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: St. Thomas -28.5 (open St. Thomas -24.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 54.5) · ML -7400 / +1400 · Presbyterian 6% no-vig · model vs market +16.7 pts, +16 pct pts (Presbyterian view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLUX)ESPN+ Bailey Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Davidson Wildcats
2-5 · SOS #171
Win 38-21
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Presbyterian by 18.8
Total 64.2
DraftKings
PRES -14.5
Total 56.5
Final Presbyterian by 17. Presbyterian beat the spread. 59 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Presbyterian -14.5 (open Presbyterian -15.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 57.5) · ML +470 / -720 · Presbyterian 83% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +6 pct pts (Presbyterian view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 61°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLUX)ESPN+ Bailey Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Stetson Hatters
1-6 · SOS #110
Win 47-43
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Presbyterian by 12.8
Total 61.6
DraftKings
PRES -7.5
Total 61.5
Final Presbyterian by 4. Stetson beat the spread. 90 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Presbyterian -7.5 (open Presbyterian -10.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 59.5) · ML -331 / +251 · Stetson 27% no-vig · model vs market -5.3 pts, -7 pct pts (Stetson view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 69°F, Wind 7 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDED)YouTube Spec Martin Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - at
Valparaiso Beacons
4-4 · SOS #160
Loss 7-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Valparaiso by 17. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 7 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - vs
Butler Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-33 · 26%
Our number
Butler by 10
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph ENE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 8:35 AM EDTESPN+ Bailey Memorial StadiumBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Morehead State Eagles
2-6 · SOS #165
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 36-26 · 74%
Our number
Presbyterian by 10
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
Dayton Flyers
6-1 · SOS #159
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 23-31 · 29%
Our number
Dayton by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bailey Memorial Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Presbyterian Blue Hose stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-29.0
Adj. offense
13.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
42.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 38.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.51 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.14 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 190.9 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 228.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 210.4 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 272.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.63 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.17 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 43.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.55 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 76.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.06 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.19 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.16 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 49.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 47.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 41.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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