Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Presbyterian 41.5, Davidson 22.7 at Bailey Memorial Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Presbyterian wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.8 points and 64.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Davidson is 2-4, scoring 22.7 and allowing 38.5 points per game (-15.8 per game). Presbyterian is 2-3, scoring 25.2 and allowing 44 points per game (-18.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Davidson by 4 and Presbyterian by 41 about 80% of the time.
Presbyterian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Presbyterian by about 16.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Davidson 21, Presbyterian 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 5.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Davidson / Presbyterian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Presbyterian -15.5 → Presbyterian -14.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +470 / -720 |
| DraftKings | Presbyterian -15.5 → Presbyterian -14.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +470 / -720 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Presbyterian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Presbyterian -19 | 64.2 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Presbyterian -14.5 | 56.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Presbyterian -15.5 | 57.2 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Presbyterian win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Presbyterian -18.8 · market Presbyterian -14.5 · difference +4.3 pts (Presbyterian view)
- Total
- model 64.2 · market 56.5 · difference +7.7
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Presbyterian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Davidson 22.7, Presbyterian 41.5 | Presbyterian 89%right winner | 1.8 | 5.2 |
| New formula | Davidson 22.2, Presbyterian 40.7 | Presbyterian 89%right winner | 1.5 | 3.9 |
Final: Davidson 21, Presbyterian 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Davidson vs Presbyterian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Davidson | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.2 | 34.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 16.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 6.87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09 | 4.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.1 | 183.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.5 | 254.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 246.2 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.6 | 149.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.33 |
| Stat | Davidson | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | -0.09 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 46.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 52.0% | 39.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 9.3% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.81 | 2.52 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 63.7 |
| Stat | Davidson | Presbyterian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.23 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 47.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 49.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 32.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.0% | 24.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.0% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 31.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.8% | 42.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Davidson schedule · Presbyterian schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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