Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Presbyterian 31.1, UVA Wise 20.8 at Bailey Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Presbyterian wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 51.8 combined points.
UVA Wise has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Presbyterian has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UVA Wise by 12 and Presbyterian by 33 about 80% of the time.
Presbyterian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Presbyterian by about 8.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UVA Wise 37, Presbyterian 47. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 32.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UVA Wise 20.8, Presbyterian 31.1 | Presbyterian 75%right winner | 0.3 | 32.2 |
| New formula | UVA Wise 15.9, Presbyterian 38.5 | Presbyterian 91%right winner | 12.6 | 29.6 |
Final: UVA Wise 37, Presbyterian 47. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: UVA Wise schedule · Presbyterian schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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