Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mercer 31.8, Presbyterian 25.8 at Five Star Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Mercer wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Presbyterian is 1-0, scoring 47 and allowing 37 points per game (+10 per game). Mercer is 1-0, scoring 23 and allowing 15 points per game (+8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Presbyterian by 17 and Mercer by 29 about 80% of the time.
Mercer gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercer by about 3.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Presbyterian 3, Mercer 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 53 points and the total by 7.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Presbyterian / Mercer) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Mercer -21.5 → Mercer -22.5 | 56.5 → 54.5 | +920 / -2100 |
| DraftKings | Mercer -21.5 → Mercer -22.5 | 56.5 → 54.5 | +920 / -2100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mercer win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mercer -6 | 57.6 | 65% |
| Market consensus | Mercer -22.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Mercer -20 | 55.1 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mercer win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model Mercer -6 · market Mercer -22.5 · difference -16.5 pts (Mercer view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 54.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 16.5 pts more toward Presbyterian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Presbyterian 25.8, Mercer 31.8 | Mercer 65%right winner | 53.0 | 7.4 |
| New formula | Presbyterian 24.3, Mercer 32.7 | Mercer 70%right winner | 50.6 | 8.0 |
Final: Presbyterian 3, Mercer 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Presbyterian vs Mercer: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Presbyterian | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4 | 36.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.2 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.87 | 7.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.47 | 5.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.3 | 171.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 254.0 | 353.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9 | 134.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 149.1 | 232.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 0.42 |
| Stat | Presbyterian | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.4% | 44.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 35.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 15.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.3% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 15.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 11.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.52 | 3.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7 | 71.8 |
| Stat | Presbyterian | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8% | 40.2% |
| Passing success rate | 49.8% | 50.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 33.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.9% | 29.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 51.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.2% | 35.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 62.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.3% | 61.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Presbyterian schedule · Mercer schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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