Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected St. Thomas 40.3, Stetson 19.2 at O'Shaughnessy Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: St. Thomas wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.1 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Stetson is 1-4, scoring 18.2 and allowing 39.2 points per game (-21 per game). St. Thomas is 4-2, scoring 32.7 and allowing 30.5 points per game (+2.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stetson by 1 and St. Thomas by 44 about 80% of the time.
St. Thomas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour St. Thomas by about 19.
Result: Stetson 21, St. Thomas 64. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.9 points and the total by 25.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stetson / St. Thomas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | St. Thomas -22.5 | 49.5 → 52.5 | +990 / -2500 |
| DraftKings | St. Thomas -22.5 | 49.5 → 52.5 | +990 / -2500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | St. Thomas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | St. Thomas -21 | 59.5 | 92% |
| Market consensus | St. Thomas -22.5 | 52.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | St. Thomas -22.5 | 53.5 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- St. Thomas win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model St. Thomas -21.1 · market St. Thomas -22.5 · difference -1.4 pts (St. Thomas view)
- Total
- model 59.5 · market 52.5 · difference +7.0
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Stetson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stetson 19.2, St. Thomas 40.3 | St. Thomas 92%right winner | 21.9 | 25.5 |
| New formula | Stetson 19.0, St. Thomas 40.0 | St. Thomas 92%right winner | 22.0 | 25.9 |
Final: Stetson 21, St. Thomas 64. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stetson vs St. Thomas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stetson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 30.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.1 | 20.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 6.59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16 | 6.08 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.8 | 184.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.7 | 247.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 167.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.3 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Stetson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 35.8% | 42.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.9% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 15.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 16.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.17 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.9 | 65.7 |
| Stat | Stetson | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 40.1% |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 46.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 22.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.9% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stetson schedule · St. Thomas schedule · all Week 6 projections
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