2026 schedule
Stetson Hatters
2026 season so far
Stetson is 1-7 against the 110th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.3 and allowing 43.1 points per game (-19.8 per game).
Stetson plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Dayton in Week 9. We project Stetson 18, Dayton 39 — Stetson wins 8% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1-0 · SOS #52
Loss 7-70
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 24.7
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SDST -50.5
Total 58.5
Final South Dakota State by 63. South Dakota State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -50.5 (open South Dakota State -47.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 56.5) · model vs market -25.8 pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Webber International Warriors
No record · SOS #178
Win 45-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Webber International by 7.8
Total 56.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Stetson by 35. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
YouTube Spec Martin Memorial Stadium - at
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
1-1 · SOS #125
Loss 18-43
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Bethune-Cookman by 12.9
Total 61.1
DraftKings
BCU -14.5
Total 56.5
Final Bethune-Cookman by 25. Bethune-Cookman beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Bethune-Cookman -14.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +545 / -880 · Bethune-Cookman 85% no-vig · model vs market -1.6 pts, -5 pct pts (Bethune-Cookman view)
Daytona StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
UC Davis Aggies
3-1 · SOS #86
Loss 7-45
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 11.9
Total 55.1
DraftKings
UCD -47.5
Total 65.5
Final UC Davis by 38. Stetson beat the spread. 52 points — under the 65.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -47.5 · O/U 65 (open 64) · model vs market -35.6 pts (UC Davis view)
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - vs
Marist Red Foxes
3-2 · SOS #154
Loss 14-28
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Marist by 11.6
Total 51
DraftKings
MRST -10.5
Total 46.5
Final Marist by 14. Marist beat the spread. 42 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marist -10.5 (open Marist -15.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 49.5) · ML -511 / +362 · Stetson 21% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, +2 pct pts (Stetson view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 89°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDED)YouTube Spec Martin Memorial Stadium - at
St. Thomas Tommies
5-2 · SOS #127
Loss 21-64
Week 6
Our number· pregame
St. Thomas by 21.1
Total 59.5
DraftKings
STMN -22.5
Total 52.5
Final St. Thomas by 43. St. Thomas beat the spread. 85 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: St. Thomas -22.5 · O/U 52.5 (open 49.5) · ML +990 / -2500 · St. Thomas 91% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, +0 pct pts (St. Thomas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 15 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTP)O'Shaughnessy StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Presbyterian Blue Hose
4-3 · SOS #145
Loss 43-47
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Presbyterian by 12.8
Total 61.6
DraftKings
PRES -7.5
Total 61.5
Final Presbyterian by 4. Stetson beat the spread. 90 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Presbyterian -7.5 (open Presbyterian -10.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 59.5) · ML -331 / +251 · Stetson 27% no-vig · model vs market -5.3 pts, -7 pct pts (Stetson view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 69°F, Wind 7 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDED)YouTube Spec Martin Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - at
Morehead State Eagles
2-6 · SOS #165
Loss 31-38
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Morehead State by 2.6
Total 63.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Morehead State by 7. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Light rain, 70°F, Wind 5 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSYM)ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Dayton Flyers
6-1 · SOS #159
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 18-39 · 8%
Our number
Dayton by 21
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 81°F, Wind 15 mph E, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTYouTube Spec Martin Memorial StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games - at
Davidson Wildcats
3-5 · SOS #171
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-32 · 49%
Our number
dead even
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Valparaiso Beacons
4-4 · SOS #160
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 23-33 · 26%
Our number
Valparaiso by 10
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Spec Martin Memorial StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
San Diego Toreros
3-5 · SOS #93
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 22-41 · 11%
Our number
San Diego by 19
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Torero StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Stetson Hatters stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-41.9
Adj. offense
8.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
50.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 43.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.40 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.12 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 104.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 266.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 225.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 258.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.06 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.20 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 34.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.3% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 68.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.02 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.15 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.27 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 31.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 46.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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