Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bethune-Cookman 37, Stetson 24.1 at Daytona Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Bethune-Cookman wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.9 points and 61 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Stetson is 1-1, scoring 26 and allowing 40 points per game (-14 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 0-1, scoring 6 and allowing 73 points per game (-67 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stetson by 10 and Bethune-Cookman by 35 about 80% of the time.
Bethune-Cookman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bethune-Cookman by about 10.8.
Result: Stetson 18, Bethune-Cookman 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.1 points and the total by 0.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stetson / Bethune-Cookman) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bethune-Cookman -14.5 | 56.5 | +545 / -880 |
| DraftKings | Bethune-Cookman -14.5 | 56.5 | +545 / -880 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bethune-Cookman win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bethune-Cookman -13 | 61.0 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Bethune-Cookman -14.5 | 56.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | Bethune-Cookman -14.5 | 57.0 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bethune-Cookman win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Bethune-Cookman -12.9 · market Bethune-Cookman -14.5 · difference -1.6 pts (Bethune-Cookman view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 56.5 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Stetson than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stetson 24.1, Bethune-Cookman 37.0 | Bethune-Cookman 80%right winner | 12.1 | 0.0 |
| New formula | Stetson 26.0, Bethune-Cookman 39.1 | Bethune-Cookman 78%right winner | 12.0 | 4.1 |
Final: Stetson 18, Bethune-Cookman 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stetson vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stetson | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 29.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.1 | 32.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 6.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16 | 6.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.8 | 174.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.7 | 235.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 209.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.3 | 261.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Stetson | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 35.8% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.9% | 48.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 2.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.9 | 64.6 |
| Stat | Stetson | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.9% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 37.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 30.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 69.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stetson schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.