Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 33.5, Stetson 21.6 at UC Davis Health Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: UC Davis wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 55 combined points.
Stetson is 1-2, scoring 23.3 and allowing 41 points per game (-17.7 per game). UC Davis is 2-1, scoring 30 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-2.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stetson by 11 and UC Davis by 34 about 80% of the time.
UC Davis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UC Davis by about 9.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stetson 7, UC Davis 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.1 points and the total by 3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stetson / UC Davis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UC Davis -47.5 | 64 → 65 | — / — |
| Bovada | UC Davis -47.5 | 64.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | UC Davis -47.5 | 63.5 → 65.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UC Davis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UC Davis -12 | 55.0 | 78% |
| Market consensus | UC Davis -47.5 | 65.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | UC Davis -42 | 64.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UC Davis win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model UC Davis -11.9 · market UC Davis -47.5 · difference -35.6 pts (UC Davis view)
- Total
- model 55.0 · market 65 · difference -10.0
Model margin is 35.6 pts more toward Stetson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stetson 21.6, UC Davis 33.5 | UC Davis 78%right winner | 26.1 | 3.0 |
| New formula | Stetson 13.7, UC Davis 47.3 | UC Davis 99%right winner | 4.4 | 9.0 |
Final: Stetson 7, UC Davis 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stetson vs UC Davis: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stetson | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.1 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 7.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16 | 6.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.8 | 200.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.7 | 277.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 198.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.3 | 236.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.31 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.15 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Stetson | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 35.8% | 49.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.9% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 2.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.9 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Stetson | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 51.3% |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 48.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 15.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.9% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3% | 29.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 54.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stetson schedule · UC Davis schedule · all Week 3 projections
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