Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Webber International 32.1, Stetson 24.3 at Spec Martin Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Webber International wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 56.3 combined points.
Webber International has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Stetson is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 70 points per game (-63 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Webber International by 30 and Stetson by 15 about 80% of the time.
Stetson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Webber International is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on YouTube.
Result: Webber International 10, Stetson 45. Stetson won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 42.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Webber International 32.1, Stetson 24.3 | Webber International 70%wrong winner | 42.8 | 1.3 |
| New formula | Webber International 35.4, Stetson 24.1 | Webber International 74%wrong winner | 46.3 | 4.6 |
Final: Webber International 10, Stetson 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Webber International vs Stetson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Webber International | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 18.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 39.1 |
| Yards per play | 3.63 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 6.16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.0 | 192.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 100.0 | 191.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.0 | 176.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.0 | 204.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Webber International | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 39.3% | 35.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 47.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Webber International | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.1% | 40.3% |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 32.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3% | 22.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0% | 38.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 41.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Webber International schedule · Stetson schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.