Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Marist 31.3, Stetson 19.7 at Spec Martin Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Marist wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.6 points and 51 combined points.
Marist is 2-2, scoring 24.8 and allowing 15 points per game (+9.8 per game). Stetson is 1-3, scoring 19.3 and allowing 42 points per game (-22.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marist by 34 and Stetson by 11 about 80% of the time.
Stetson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Marist is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on YouTube.
Result: Marist 28, Stetson 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marist / Stetson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marist -15.5 → Marist -10.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -511 / +362 |
| DraftKings | Marist -15.5 → Marist -10.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -511 / +362 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stetson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Marist -11.5 | 51.0 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Marist -10.5 | 46.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | Marist -10.5 | 47.8 | 23% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stetson win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Marist -11.6 · market Marist -10.5 · difference -1.1 pts (Stetson view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 46.5 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Marist than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Marist 31.3, Stetson 19.7 | Marist 78%right winner | 2.4 | 9.0 |
| New formula | Marist 30.6, Stetson 20.0 | Marist 76%right winner | 3.4 | 8.6 |
Final: Marist 28, Stetson 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Marist vs Stetson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Marist | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.7 | 18.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5 | 39.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.23 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70 | 6.16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.8 | 192.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.0 | 191.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.9 | 176.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 204.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Marist | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 47.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.2 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Marist | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 40.3% |
| Passing success rate | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 22.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 38.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.2% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 41.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marist schedule · Stetson schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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